National Intelligence Estimate
Thu 23 Aug 2007

Overall the report is close to the mark on what it does say but it leaves out some very key points and it is the hope of the author that these points are covered in the classified sections.

The following is an analysis of the report and its significance

“There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq’s security situation since our last National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in January 2007”… “…Iraq’s security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi Government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance.”

What is failed to mention through out the report is that the potential for a break down in Government security forces will increase and there effectiveness decrease as long as the government continues to mismanage. The analogy of a dam with a weak foundation is perfect for this situation. Yes the security forces may improve but it only serves to build up more water until the whole system breaks down.

Another paragraph that could be misleading is “A multi-stage process involving the Iraq Government providing support and legitimacy for such initiatives could foster over the longer term political reconciliation between the participating Sunni Arab and the national Government” This statement is making assumptions that the current Iraqi government could be stabilized or that its good enough for us to support it. What should be focused on is that the current government cannot last and even if by miracle it does it is not going to have any interested in saving/assisting Sunnis if there anywhere close to Baghdad all the way down to Basra. Nor would the Iraqi government support any moderate Shiites who might speak up. What is mentioned and this speaks to the idea that Maliki and his cabinet will fail and be pushed aside. “We also assess that under some conditions “bottom-up initiatives could pose a risk to the Iraqi Government” I have a very strong word of caution to the U.S. military and those participating in any bottom up initiative. If you are in a mixed neighborhood where this type of initiative is going to take place you must form unbreakable bonds of brother hood with your fellow neighbors Shiite, Christian or Sunni because militia/ groups, such as Mahdi army could possibly try and strike at these bonds by killing off as many Sunni or Christians as possible so as to displace them, thereby creating a sectarian type neighborhood. This will end up driving forces such as AQIZ into the hands of the Sunnis, if AQIZ can protect these vulnerable populations better then Coalition forces or “ground up movements”.

In the next paragraphs the report goes on to show modest improvements in the fighting ability of Iraqi units. But again fails to address the political situation and that this could all be turned on its head with a break down in government or the continuation of Maliki which will eventually lead to a break down of the Prime Minister position. These newly trained units cannot be truly effective in a fight for equal rights for all if they are being manipulated by the government to assist Mahdi army other criminal gangs. In short nothing can be built on this type of foundation.

The next statement is a key point in the conflict in Iraq and its turning point.

“We judge that Maliki will continue to benefit from the recognition among Shia leaders that searching for a replacement could paralyze the government”

This is true but it is virtually a guarantee that the government will become paralyzed if there isn’t a new leader found. Much of this I believe could be speed along if the U.S. would make a clear declaration of who they will support in broad terms that are for the best of Iraq. Without a firm direction for the Iraqi politicians to go it will only encourage more infighting as it appears the U.S. is shifting sides.

The section on population displacement is pretty close to the mark. As is the section on foreign power influences although I would say Iran will continue its push of influence in the region until there is reason to stop as this extra influence would be beneficial as a buffers zone from attack and also in spreading there sphere of influence. History shows that Iran will continue its funding of these terrorist groups from its actions with Hezbollah.

Bush compares Iraq to Vietnam, recants criticism of Iraq's PM
New Zealand Herald, New Zealand Thur 23 Aug 2007

How can Bush say Maliki is a good man? where is there any sign that Maliki has done anything good? The only thing Maliki seems to be good at is talking to the press about reconciliation while behind the scenes supporting the Mahdi Army. At least Maliki made the mistake of threatening to turn to others for support if he couldn't get it from the U.S. presumably referring to Iran. Well let him turn to others because who ever would support him is already supporting him. At least it would be out in the open who Maliki really supports and at least the U.S. wouldn't be supporting its enemies by helping out Maliki. Please Mr. Bush tell us how supporting Maliki is going to help us?

Bush Acknowledges Frustration in Iraq, backs away from Maliki.
TIME - Wed 22 Aug 2007

This is a great sign from Bush that he is not opposed to a fundamental change of leadership in the Iraqi government. Hopefully this will be the start of a withdrawal of American support from this sectarian regime and an acknowledgement that change is needed. This news was greeted with much quit excitement from the Iraqis in my neighborhood.

In Baghdad, Services and Violence Linked

Armed Groups Extort and Manipulate Vital Needs, Locals Say

Posted Tue 21 Aug 2007

This article shows the increasing influence and growing power of a mostly unchecked Mahdi army and criminal gangs due to a corrupt government and the U.S. military that doesn't feel it has the ability to fight an essentially two front war, one against AQIZ and the other against government backed militias and Iranian influence. The wide spread uprising in March 2004 showed that it would be impossible for the U.S. to single handedly control and protect the rest of Iraq from Baghdad all the way south to Basra. Thus we have seen a strange game of truce between the U.S. Mahdi army and Irainian influence. The catch 22 of the situation is that the longer that Iranian intrests and the Mahdi army are left unchecked the more control they will exert over the citizens, eventually turning them from pro-Iraqi into pro Iran or radical Shiite. Not by choice necessarily but because of a matter of there survival. The solution? the government must change and the Iraqi people engaged with honest debate free from durres.

Daily Column

Iraqi Papers Tues: Sistani Lashes Out

High Cleric Attacks Ruling Establishment

By AMER MOHSEN

"al-Quds al-'Arabi reported that Ayatollah Sistani, “they have filled my heart with puss,” in reference to ruling establishment in Iraq. Sistani’s words, however, were not made in a public statement, therefore, their veracity cannot be ascertained....

Particularly, the paper added, the Ayatollah attacked “those who wore my robe, and controlled the government and the parliament,” which is a clear reference to al-Hakeem’s SIIC (which declared Sistani its highest reference earlier this year) and his allies in the Da'wa party." (quoted from the daily column)

If this can be verified it is a very significant event in the current political game. This means the most influential Shiit in Iraq is disputing the honesty of the elections and the conduct of the Maliki government essentially giving a green light to the U.S. and anyone else to push for there removal. If this is confirmed it should be front page news.

A Plan for Iraq
By Ayad Allawi Sat, 18 Aug 2007

In order for Allawi's 6 step plan to have any chance of success in Iraq, assuming that governmental control can be turned over to him. There would have to be an extremely robust anti-corruption task force. The current government is corrupted at every level and is the way instead of the exception. To change this organizational culture and give back legitimacy to the Iraq government and security to the people nothing less then an elite unit with martial type powers is need. There only job would be to police the government and nothing more. Experts would have to be brought in from the FBI, CIA and Special Forces to train willing but vetted Iraqi patriots. Aggressive and strict oversight of normal government functions will be the only hope of success for a plan such as this. As it stands now almost any plan would be better then the current.

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U.S. Is Testing Plan for Neighborhood Sunni Arab Guards in Iraq
New York Times Sat, 18 Aug 2007 12:38 PM PDT
Critics worry that the plan could intensify the already intense sectarian warfare in Iraq, but U.S. commanders, pointing to success in Anbar, hope it will increase security.

This is a good start for true democracy in Iraq. This plan empowers the local people allowing them to take control of there lives and make decisions for themselves, which is what democracy is truly about. There are some concerns that this will polarize the Sunni and Shia against each other, but in reality with out giving these people an option to turn to a just government they will be forced into the arms of AQIZ and criminals for protection. Because the current government allows and may encourage ethnic displacement/cleansing, so as to consolidate their power.

Hopefully in the future less emphasis can be put on Sunni empowerment and instead focus on just empowerment of local citizens no matter creed or other wise. For surely as in Iraqis history of intermixing Sunni and Shiites there is an underlying will but it is being suppressed by those who wish the chaos to continue. Empower the just and little else need be done.

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Iraqi Premier Stirs Discontent, Yet Hangs On
New York Times, United States - Sun, 19 Aug 2007
The latest salvo came Saturday from the American ambassador, Ryan C. Crocker. Traveling with Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq, Mr. Crocker ...

The underlying premise taken by ambassador Crocker is that the elections that brought Maliki and company to power where fair and that the supposed decision made to elect these politicians would be the same if elections where held again. Mr. Crocker also seems to treat the Iraq political situation as if it where a vacuum, but in reality the Iranians are pushing very hard for there own agendas and with out someone to counter act this force, there can be nothing fare about the outcome. Maliki may make good press with his twisting of words but one only need to look at who he has appointed to offices and ministries to see his real agenda. The Iraq people can see through him, why do the Americans continue there blind support of one who obviously doesn't even support American interests. At the least America should stop propping up a failed system and push for change, instead of blunting the peoples will. How else are a people to change a supposed democratic government if a foreign power stands in there way?

Send your comments to webmaster@lionofiraq.com

U.S. general: Iraq 'surge' likely to end in spring
McClatchy Newspapers via Yahoo! News Fri, 17 Aug 2007 2:02 PM PDT
WASHINGTON— The U.S military will begin pulling out the additional troops it sent to Iraq as part of the so-called surge next spring and will have completed their withdrawal by next August, the No. 2 American commander in Iraq said Friday.

On Iraq, pope's message to Bush is quiet but firm

Amid antiwar protests in Rome, Benedict urges the president to pursue a 'negotiated' solution to violence.

Times Staff Writers
By Tracy Wilkinson and James Gerstenzang,
June 10, 2007

Robert Dreyfuss updates on the emerging alliance of a "National Salvation" coalition

The American Prospect

Iraqi Sunni lawmaker threatens to withdraw from parliament, urges moderates to follow

AMMAN, Jordan (AP) - An Iraqi Sunni lawmaker urged moderates Sunday to withdraw from Iraq's parliament, accusing the legislature of being a tool of a Shiite-led government incapable of ending sectarian strife and achieving national reconciliation.Sunni-lawmaker-threatens-withdraw

World News 2007-06-03 16:35:51 -

Ayad Allawi: The Iraqi people are responsible for bringing stability to their own country

Senate Hearings

After watching the senate hearings with Crocker and Petraeus two things disturbed me.

One when the Senate was presented with the accusations/evidence of Iranian training/funding/arming of the insurgency and terrorism in Iraq, there was no sense of outrage but of resignation. If this was taking place in the United States what would they say but instead they give off the attitude of "ow OK i guess we deserve to have a our service men killed and blown up by Iranians......no big deal to me" Republicans and Democrats all say they support our servicemen....why don't they at least denounce Iran for killing the troops they monotonously praise.

The second issue is with the very misleading statements from Crocker about Maliki and the government. Just from watching this hearing you would think that Maliki was a good guy with the interests of Iraq's and Americans as his driving influence. The reality is that Maliki is firmly supporting Iranian and Mahdi army goals, while only doing enough to appear as an ally to the U.S. . Crocker knows this, the Senate should know this but everyone there seemed to be happy playing the game, lie to the American public game so we dont make our supposed allies mad at us . Both sides tout the 2005 Iraqi election as democracy and shut down support for change in the Iraqi government by claiming interference in democracy but in reality they know the elections where a scam and heavily tainted by Iran (reference:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/29/AR2007082901930.html) They then call for democratic change in Iraq for a government they support via money and military arms. Why would the current Iraqi government ever vote itself out of power and if the people wanted a change how would they pressure the government to do this?

The biggest problem in this war from Democrats and Republicans are there attempts at manipulation of American perception over simply telling the truth.

Petraeus says Iran involvement in attacks 'clear'

Investor's Business Daily

About The Other Surge -- Iran In Iraq

Tuesday September 11, 7:00 pm ET

Ibd

Goverment Acountability Office: Report on Iraq Progress

Allawi: US Secretly Met Baathists

Why Maliki Is Still Around

Monday, Jul. 09, 2007 By BRIAN BENNETT/WASHINGTON

This is brought back from the archives just to bring the issue back to the table. A main point being lost in Petraeus's and Crocker's meeting with the Senate committee is the Effectiveness of Maliki and his government. Maliki has only offered up token changes in leader ship and the arrests to keep the U.S. deluded that Maliki can be a viable option. But his net actions and history must be taken into account and when they are it is clear that he does not have the same goal as the United States.

In Reply to : Letter from Baghdad

The Iraq government is the crux to the whole problem.... no Sunni wants to work with the government because it is sectarian and they don't trust it. its to corrupt....

we cant pull out unless we have a fix for the problem or we just get bigger problems....we are delaying our problems by supporting the current government ......for any significant change there has to be a civil war of sorts.....we can either pull out and let it develop on its own....or we can choose who we like and support them as one unfolds and have allies at the end. It has already been said there is a civil war and it is true but its not as big as it could be.

Thomas is right when he says there is no significant co-operation between Sunni and Shiite.... but there can be cooperation between all the groups... i see it all the time in American led/protected forces. These people can, do and have worked together, in the past and currently but it will not happen when there controlling body (i.e. the government is sectarian) again we come back to changing the government.

I see constant speculation from the Iraqis that America is going to push Allawi into power and make a new government.....I wish this where the case.... I have seen this speculation a couple months after Maliki took power and have seen it continue..... it never materializes but the Iraqis don't want to give up hope that something better is on the way.

Well this raises the question: How do you make a government that is not too far sectarian?.....i don't have any confidence in the democratic process in this country....the election is not until late 2008....many Iraqis want a change but I am afraid that between religious edicts and threats of violence and cheating no one non-sectarian will get elected.

Some in the U.S. government have said it is up to the Iraq's to change there government.....well I ask them how they are supposed to do that when the U.S. supports this particular government..... you certainly cant threaten them into, and elections are still a significant way off. Really who is going to vote themselves out of power when someone like the U.S. is backing them up??????

The only ones with significant room to maneuver and empower non-sectarians is the U.S.

At the end of the day the only way we can be successful in Iraq is if people who support American democracy and ideals are the ones in power, the only way they are going to get in power is if we help them. The Iranian government supports there side not only by supporting there ideals but by supporting all that causes chaos so as to cut down on American success. Our enemies support there constituents we need to support ours.

The policy of standing back and letting sides duke it out while protecting a government that is clearly sectarian and anti-American will not win us any friends or wars.

Alexander

Partisans Continue Battle to Frame Next Phase of Iraq Debate

CQPolitics.com via Yahoo! News Thu, 06 Sep 2007 11:30 AM PDT

Partisans on both sides of the Iraq War debate stepped up their efforts Thursday to influence the public’s assessment of President Bush’s troop surge and the need for a continued massive U.S. military commitment in the year ahead.

Syria severely restricts Iraqi refugee influx

ABS-CBNNEWS.com Mon, 03 Sep 2007 10:05 AM PDT

DAMASCUS - Syria has imposed strict visa requirements on Iraqi nationals, officials said on Monday, cutting the only accessible escape route for thousands of refugees fleeing the upheaval in Iraq.

As America continues its bottom up campaign of arming local citizenry and producing town guards the same could be done with those attempting to flee to Syria. If refugees start becoming a problem in Iraq then the camps that are formed should not be allowed to turn into the classic mass of bodies with nothing to do all day but wait for food hand outs. The able bodied should be given depression era type projects to work on and others trained to be the town guards. I would say that if these camps are formed they should not be called refugee camps but organized as towns.